Barclays forecasts that the Spanish economy will fall by 0.4% in 2023 in the midst of the energy crisis
Barclays throwing cold water on the economic forecasts for Europe in general and Spain in particular as the energy crisis worsens. The British entity has published the most pessimistic estimate to date, calculating that Spanish GDP will fall by 0.4% in the whole of next year after chaining three consecutive quarters down. According to the firm, activity in our country will contract by 1% between October and December of this year, it will deepen that drop to 2.3% in the first quarter of next year and will fall by 1.3% between April and June. . With the arrival of the tourist season, the national GDP would recover the positive ground in the third quarter with a slight rise of 0.3%.
Barclays forecasts are the only ones that for the moment contemplate a decline in Spanish wealth in the whole of next year, in a context in which international organizations, the Bank of Spain or the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) have worsened their expectations for the country, which they place below those of the Government. In the macroeconomic table that accompanies the General State Budget, the Executive incorporates a GDP advance of 2.1% next year, higher than the 1% contemplated by the European Commission. The review has also been forceful in the case of another of the large investment banks, Goldman Sachs, which, however, does see the Spanish economy growing next year, albeit in a more contained way: the US entity has lowered one tenth its previous calculation up to 0.6% for 2023.
The scenario drawn by Barclays is explained by a worsening of the energy crisis and by the strong dependence that European countries have on Russia in this area. Faced with this situation, the German and Italian economies are especially affected. The entity anticipates that the German will contract 1.1% next year and that the transalpine will do so by 1%, dragging the rest with it.
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