Boot Barn (BOOT) Third Quarter Earnings: What’s in store for the stock?

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Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. BOOT is expected to report third quarter 2022 financial results after the closing bell on January 25. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenue is $514.5 million, which would indicate an increase of 5.9% compared to the prior-year quarter’s actual numbers.

However, the net result is likely to decrease from year to year. The consensus mark for third-quarter earnings has fallen a penny over the past seven days to $1.75, representing a 21.5% decline from the year-ago quarter.

This Irvine, Calif.-based lifestyle retailer posted a 16.5% positive return in the prior quarter. It does not expect an average positive return of 11.7% over the last four quarters.

Key aspects to consider

Boot Barn’s third-quarter results were impacted by a challenging operating environment, including supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures and the promotional landscape. In addition, adverse currency fluctuations and fierce competition are a concern. Selling, general and administrative expenses may have weighed on the company’s earnings in the quarter due to increased store wages, other store-related expenses and marketing expenses, as well as the aforementioned headwinds.

In its latest earnings call, management forecast total sales of $502 million to $514 million for the fiscal third quarter. It predicts that comparable store sales will decline by 3-5%, retail comparable store sales by about minus 2%, and comparable store and e-commerce sales by 17-21%. BOOT forecast gross profit of $184 million to $189 million, or about 36.8% of sales, including an expected 200 basis points from freight charges.

However, management is focused on expanding its omnichannel capabilities and advanced in-store technology solutions, as well as improving the in-store experience. The company has also expanded its range of products. Increasing brand penetration and an increased focus on full-price sales may also be a collision.

What the Zacks Model Reveals

Our proven model does not predict a clear increase in revenue for Boot Barn this time around. A combination of a positive ESP Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an Earnings Outperformer. But that’s not the case here. You can find the best stocks to buy or sell before your earnings are flagged by the ESP filter.

Boot Barn has an Earnings ESP of -0.65% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Actions with favorable combinations

Here are some companies that have the right combination of elements for success, according to our model:

five below FIVE currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is expected to report improved earnings when it issues its Q4 2022 numbers. The Zacks’ Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $3.05 is an increase from the $2.49 reported in the prior-year quarter.

Five Below’s turnover is expected to increase year on year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenue is $1.10 billion, which would indicate a 10.7% improvement from the year-ago quarter. FIVE has had a surprise return over the past four quarters, averaging 26.3%. You can see The full list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks is here.

Oxford Industries OXM currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.47% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is expected to report earnings growth when it issues its Q4 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share of $2.14 suggests an increase of 27.4% from a year ago.

Oxford Industries’ turnover is expected to increase year on year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenue is $378.7 million, which represents an increase of 26.3% compared to the year-ago quarter. OXM has averaged an expected 18.9% return over the last four quarters.

Crocodile CROX currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is expected to record improved earnings when it reports its Q4 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share of $2.15 remained unchanged from last year’s quarter.

Crocs’ revenue is expected to grow year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenue is $938.5 million, which represents a 60% improvement from the year-ago quarter. CROX’s earnings over the past four quarters have averaged a 18.2% surprise.

Stay up-to-date with upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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