Brussels warns of a break in winter and leaves growth at 1% in 2023


The European Commission has cut its growth forecast for the Spanish economy next year by almost one point to 1%, from the 2.1% it forecast in the summer. The international context aggravated by the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis will put pressure on the countries of the euro zone, with almost all major economies unable to dodge recession. It will not be the case of Spain that, despite the fact that according to Brussels it could register a drop in GDP of 0.3% in the fourth quarter of this year, it would stagnate between January and March of next year (it contemplates 0% growth), so it would not chain the two consecutive quarters that imply incurring a technical recession.

In its Autumn Forecasts, Brussels shows more optimistic about the behavior of the Spanish economy this year than it did just a few months ago, in July. Thus, he forecasts that the GDP will grow by 4.5% this year, compared to the 4% he estimated in the summer. This implies that Spain will advance above the European Union average (3.3%) and above the euro zone average (3.2%). Subsequently, the economy would slow down next year to that 1%, which also represents a reduction in relation to the perspectives that the Government contemplated in its last macroeconomic table (where it estimated that the activity would advance to 2.1%). With everything, will continue to grow above the euro zone as a whole (0.3%) and above what the other large economies in the region will do: France (0.4%), Italy, (0.3%) and Germany (-0.6%).

With regard to inflation, the great economic beast against which the European Central Bank (ECB) is fighting and which the respective governments also have to tackle, Brussels projects that the rate will be 8.5% this year in Spain (four tenths above what it estimated in the summer), but lowers it to 4.8% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024. Regarding employment, the EU calculations also show a more positive diagnosis for Spain, in terms of evolution, since it is among the countries with the greatest decrease in the unemployment rate, together with Lithuania, Sweden or Italy, going from 13.3% to 12.4%.


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