Deutsche Bank forecasts a mild recession in Spain and rules out a collapse of the brick


Deutsche Bank Spain anticipates that the Spanish economy grows by 0.8% in 2023, is a calculation in line with that made by other entities such as Credit Suisse and somewhat more pessimistic than that provided by the European Commission (1%) and above all that provided by the Government (2.1%). Of course, this advance will be higher than what the entity anticipates for the rest of the euro area economy and for the European Union as a whole, which stands at 0.3% after experiencing a mild recession and a rebound in activity economy around June.

This was stated by the entity’s investment director, Rosa Duce, and the analyst Diego Jiménez-Albarracín, in a meeting with the media held this Wednesday. The forecast for the United States, for its part, is 0.4%. Duce has pointed out that the economy is cooling off and that the global economy will experience a mild recessionin which Europe would enter this fourth quarter and the United States, in the first of 2023. “The sum of the European funds together with the aid to companies and families should allow the economy to begin to pick up,” he pointed out.

Likewise, the investment director has highlighted that confidence has not fallen so much in Spain compared to other countries and no risk of cut in gas supply has ever been perceived. Also has ruled out a real estate collapse. Inflation will still remain above the central banks’ 2% target, so the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates to between 5% and 5.25% in the first quarter.

Measures for mortgages and rate hikes

Regarding the European Central Bank (ECB), you could raise your deposit rate up to 3%, although “with significant risks of further rises.” At the moment, no rate cut is anticipated for either the ECB or the Fed for 2023. Duce added that in the current framework, European unity “is more important” and one of the reasons why it is not is seeing no debt crisis or fiscal policy hits.

In what has to do with the tax on financial institutions, he has indicated that currently nothing can be done against the banks without counting on the ECB, which is why they are sheltered under its umbrella. Jiménez-Albarracín added that the protocol to alleviate mortgage pressure announced by the Government this week will have little impact on the banks’ profit and loss account. In addition, he believes that an agreement will be reached, because reputationally “it is good that it is noted that entities support families in poverty”.


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