Escrivá foresees that employment will resist in November despite the economic slowdown
Employment will resist this month of November despite the stagnation of the economy, which advanced 0.2% in the third quarter and which, according to organizations such as the Bank of Spain or the Fiscal Authority, could register a slight contraction in the fourth. It does so despite the fact that uncertainty has increased in the international context due to the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis, with the euro area on the verge of recession and a notable tightening of financial conditions. The Minister of Social Security Inclusion and Migrations, José Luis Escrivá, has advanced that the average affiliations to Social Security will remain practically at zero or will register a very low increase. This data is compatible with an increase of 80,000 affiliates in terms corrected for seasonal variations, a figure that was only surpassed in 2006.
This will be the case in a month in which traditionally the number of employed usually registers sharp falls. Only in the period between 2017 and 2019, prior to the Covid pandemic, an average of 38,000 jobs were destroyed in the eleventh month of the year. According to the minister, we will still have to wait to see the effects of the Christmas campaign on the labor market. Escrivá has pointed out that since the end of the pandemic in August 2021, 825,000 new jobs have been created, 500,000 only so far in 2022.
According to the minister, with the data available to date average employment growth in 2022 is 3.9%, a level that can not only be compared with that of the 2006 financial year, in full expansion of the real estate bubble. Now, the minister emphasizes, the composition of employment is different and the most productive activities, which generate more added value, have been gaining weight. “It is an extraordinarily high year”, he has settled during his appearance before the media.
According to the data handled by your Department, this evolution of employment allows collection from contributions advances around 8% and represents close to 11% of GDP. The minister explained that employment is growing in all the autonomous regions and explains the downward trend in temporary employment due to the application of the labor reform. He explains, specifically, that the rate has been reduced from 30% to 16% for all workers, while in the group of employees under 30 years of age it has gone from being above 50% to below 25 %. Temporary contracts have seen their duration increase by an average of 48 days compared to the period before the pandemic.
The pension reform will be processed as a decree
José Luis Escrivá has also made reference to the negotiations with the social agents to carry out -before the end of the year- the second leg of the pension reform committed to Brussels within the framework of the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan. The minister, who did not want to give specific details or figures on the aspects that are being addressed, has acknowledged that the Government’s intention is to process it as a Royal Decree Law (RDL), since there are issues that must be approved urgently.
Among the changes that will be incorporated is the increase in the maximum contribution bases and the highest pensions and the extension of the calculation period to set the amount of retirement. “It is premature to talk about figures”, he assured when asked about the first thing. About the possibility of the reform extending until 2050 the overprice of 0.6% than the Intergenerational Equity Mechanism (MEI) includes between 2023 and 2032, the minister has confirmed that the issue is within the scope of negotiations, without wanting to give more details.
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