GRAINS-USA New Soybean Crop, Corn Futures Match USDA Forecast; the wheat rises
12:56 CDT (1756 GMT), July soybeans from the Chicago Board of Trade SN3 Down 15 cents to $13.90-1/2 a bushel and new crop November soybeans SX3 It fell 25 cents to $12.23. July corn CN3 December corn rose 3/4 cent to $5.83 a bushel from new production CZ3 It was down 6-1/2 cents at $5.07-1/4.
USDA designed U.S. farmers produced a record 15.265 billion bushels of corn, bringing stocks to 2.222 billion bushels by the end of the 2023/24 marketing year, up from 1.417 billion at the end of 2022/23.
For soybeans, the government is forecasting a crop of 4.510 billion bushels and has set soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 at 335 million bushels, down from 215 million bushels expected at the end of 2022/23.
“Corn and bean numbers have declined irreversibly,” Marex Capital analyst Charlie Sernatinger said in a note to clients.
The USDA forecast the 2023/24 corn farm average price to drop to $4.80 from the 2022/23 average of $6.60, while new crop soybean prices were lower. $12.10 per bushel, down from $14.20 in 2022/23.
Corn and soybean production forecasts will depend heavily on favorable weather conditions in the Midwest over the next several months, which will be a major market concern as farmers finish planting and crops begin to develop.
Overall US wheat supply is expected to contract in 2023/24. The USDA is forecasting the lowest production of hard red winter wheat for bread since 1957. Hard red winter wheat grown in the plains states, including Kansas, is generally the largest class of American wheat. USDA’s hard red winter wheat production estimate of 514 million bushels fell short of most analysts’ expectations.
However, overall U.S. winter wheat production rose 2% from a year earlier due to increased production of soft red winter wheat grown in the Midwest and used for food.
July CBOT soft red winter wheat was up 8 3/4 cents at $6.36 a bushel in late Friday’s session and July KC red hard winter wheat KWN3 After reaching $8.99-1/2, it was up 34-1/4 cents at $8.75-3/4, the contract’s highest since Nov. 25.
(Additional reporting by Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Sybil de La Hamaide in Paris; Editing by Rashmi Aich, Kirsten Donovan)
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