Nevada Democratic presidential primary election and GOP presidential primary

President Joe Biden, center, takes photos with patrons at They Say restaurant during a campaign stop Feb. 1, 2024, in Harper Woods, Michigan.
President Joe Biden, center, takes photos with patrons at They Say restaurant during a campaign stop Feb. 1, 2024, in Harper Woods, Michigan. Evan Vucci/AP

Just how does Joe Biden win reelection? National polls show him trailing Donald Trump more often than leading him – a rare position for an incumbent to be in at this point in the campaign.

These national polls, though, mean little. You win elections state by state through the Electoral College. Back in 2020, the closest battleground states (i.e., those decided by 3 points or less) were either around the Great Lakes (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) or along the Sun Belt (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina).

Biden would be reelected if he wins all the states in either region, so long as he also carries the remaining states he took in 2020.

At this point, though, it seems his easiest path to a second term runs through the Great Lakes rather than the Sun Belt.

Look at two Fox News polls released Thursday. Biden and Trump were tied in Wisconsin – a state the president won by less than a point in 2020. In Georgia, another state Biden won by less than a point four years ago, Trump held an 8-point edge.

These Fox News polls are not outliers. Trump hasn’t led (even within the margin of error) in any Wisconsin poll this cycle that meets CNN’s standards for publication. On the other end, he hasn’t trailed in any Georgia poll in well over a year.

Keep reading about Biden’s path to reelection.

First appeared on www.cnn.com

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