The best NFL picks, props and parries for Sunday’s Wild Card games
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The Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills will both face backup quarterbacks on Sunday when they play Wild Card weekend games. In the NFL playoffs, this scenario would significantly extend the streak by two games. Buffalo got 13.5 points from the Miami Dolphins, while the Bengals got 8.5 points from the Baltimore Ravens.
When it comes to playoff teams, the Minnesota Vikings are at the top of the list. Despite a 13-4 record that won the NFC North title, the Vikings finished the regular season with a negative point differential. Minnesota is a 3-point home pick against the New York Giants.
Which game is the best bet of Sunday’s weekend’s three wild card games? We’ll take a look at it with the props to play and suggest a bet worth considering in the following story.
Dolphins score -13.5
Josh Allen was a perfect candidate as the quarterback for the Bills because he lives for the cold. Forecasts call for a high of 30 degrees when the Bills host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday (1 p.m. ET), and that’s right in Allen’s wheelhouse.
He’s 18-5, playing in games in 40 degrees or below. Dual Threat Allen passed for 5,757 yards and 51 touchdowns and rushed for 1,235 yards and 10 touchdowns in those games.
Additionally, SU is 0-8 when the warm weather Dolphins play when the mercury is 40 or below. Miami is 0-4 SU in the club’s last four road games and 2-3 ATS in their last five road games.
The Dolphins swept both regular season games against the Bills, winning 21-19 at home and losing 32-29 at Buffalo to get 7 points. However, each of those games were played with QB1 Tua Tagovailoa under center. Tagovailoa (concussion protocol) is out for this game, as is backup QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee, dislocated toe). Third stringer Skylar Thompson will start. He is 1-1 this season and beat the New York Jets last week to send Miami into the playoffs. But Thompson averages a passer rating of 62.2.
Miami is the #7 seed. Seventh-place teams are 0-4 SU and ATS since the NFL expanded the playoffs two years ago.
Play these props for profit
The Baltimore Ravens also travel to Cincinnati (8:15 p.m. ET) and play with their replacement QB leading the offense. QB1 Lamar Jackson (knee) is out. Second-stringer Tyler Huntley, who sat out the regular-season finale against the Bengals last week with a shoulder injury, returned for the game.
As far as betting goes, it’s Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow, but you want to see. In two games against Baltimore this season, Burrow was limited to one touchdown each time. In fact, in 10 of the last 11 games, the Ravens’ defense has limited the opposing QB to one or less in the TD passing department. Baltimore is holding opponents to 12.2 points per game since Week 13.
Get less than 1.5 TD assists for Burrow with +155 odds.
When the Vikings hosted the Giants in the regular season, All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson caught 13 passes in a 27-24 win at Minnesota. So is TJ Hockenson.
With the Giants focused on preventing Jefferson’s deep ball threat, Vikings QB Kirk Cousins used ground routes to Hockenson to make that cover available. The longest reception of the game by a big tight end was 16 yards.
This option should be available again this game (4:40 PM ET). New York’s game plan focused on keeping Jefferson from hurting them. Hockenson’s receiving yardage is set at 4.5 catches, so that should be a bonus. Play above at -130.
Bills-Dolphins betting game
Buffalo should be able to score points against a battered Miami team that has gone 1-5 and 1-3 in games that Tagovailoa has not started this season. It also makes for a potentially delicious doubles matchup for this contest.
Start at -170 on Allen’s 1.5+ TD streak. In 10 career games against the Dolphins, Allen has never thrown two touchdowns. He’s also thrown for at least two touchdowns in each of Buffalo’s last three games and five of the last six. That includes a four-assist performance in the Dolphins’ loss to Buffalo on Dec. 17.
Bills TE Dawson Knox becomes Fort Knox for players who score TDs anytime. Betting on him to find the end zone lately is like printing money. Knox has caught a TD pass in four straight games. Three of those four touchdowns have come in home games and five of Knox’s last six touchdowns have come in the red zone, so you know Allen will be looking for Knox when the money runs out. He has a + 200 to TD score at any time.
Combine these two bets into a single bet and the payout on a $100 bet is $459.
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