The distribution of large consumption forecasts that sales will stagnate in 2023


The distribution of large consumption forecasts a 2023 of stagnation in turnover and sales volumeaccording to data from the sectoral barometer presented during the Aecoc ‘Perspectives on Mass Consumption 2023’ conference, which includes the valuations of distribution companies with a combined market share of more than 80% and more than 50 manufacturing companies.

Specifically, 40% of distributors think that the growth of the sector in 2023 it will look somewhat stagnantwhile 44% consider that the current situation is too uncertain to make forecasts, while only 20% are optimistic and consider that the sector will maintain the current path of growth.

The distributors’ forecasts are in line with the data presented by NielsenIQ in the day, which advances a closing of the year with a growth of 10% for the sector and they foresee a slowdown for 2023, which would end with an increase in turnover of 4.6%.

However, the main concern of the ‘retailers’ is in the purchase volumes. Thus, 33% perceive stagnation in consumption by 2023, while 27% believe that the volume indicator will enter a recession. Only 13% are optimistic and believe that the consumption data will be positive next year.

The perceptions of mass consumption manufacturers are similar, since 45% agree that purchase volumes will fall next year, while 31% expect stagnation. Regarding billing prospects, 37% of manufacturers expect stagnationwhile 35% are optimistic about the growth of the sector.

Inflation is the biggest challenge for 2023

In the analysis of challenges and priorities for the coming year, the barometer reflects the sector’s concern about the evolution of inflation. Thus, the companies cite the impact of price rise as the main challenge for next year, followed by the revitalization of sales aimed at consumers with less purchasing power and the impact of service problems.

With respect to their priorities, the large consumer companies once again indicate the management of the inflationfollowed by margin protection and, finally, ensuring product availability.

Moderate optimism for Christmas

Despite the concern about the effects of inflation on consumption, companies are moderately optimistic regarding the results of the next Christmas campaign. In this way, 60% expect a positive campaign, with more occasions for consumption within the home, while 20% anticipate a Christmas similar to that of 2021 and another 20% expect worse results.

During the day, the consulting firm NielsenIQ presented the data on the evolution of the sector throughout the year, which shows that, in the accumulated year to September, mass consumption registered growth of 8.2% in value. However, the data confirms that purchase volumes fell in five of the first nine months of the year, reaching decreases of 3.9% and 3.5% in April and May, respectively.

The study shows that the evolution of the sector is similar in the rest of Europe, which registers a fall of 2.7% in the purchase volume until the third quarter of the year.

In comparison with other countries, the analysis points to a average growth of 0.8% in the value of the shopping cart in Spain. A remarkably large percentage minor to the increases registered in Germany (3.4%) and Italy (3.2%). On the other hand, the average ticket in the United Kingdom has fallen by 0.1%, and in France it has fallen by 3.6%.


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