The experts are positive and de Cos asks “not to take the European recession for granted”
The director of CaixaBank Research, Enric Fernández, and the Chief Economist of Banco Santander, Juan Cerruti, believe that there will be no economic recession in Spain due to rising inflation, and the director of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, considers that there will be but that it will be “short and very little intense”. This is how they considered it during the session ‘Macroeconomics and sanctions’ at the XXVII Economics Meeting in Castell-Platja d’Aro (Girona), in which the former Minister and Professor of Economics Andreu Mas-Colell also participated. Domènech has highlighted that both Europe and Spain “have not fallen into recession” and believes that they have shown themselves to be resilient in the face of economic effects derived from the geopolitical conflictand sees a possible rise of one or two tenths of European GDP for next year if the EU continues to take time to enter a recession, in his words.
Sanctions against Russia for the war
On the other hand, they have questioned the consequences of the sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU for having started the war with Ukraine, which “they have already been remarkable”, according to Fernández. The Caixabank expert pointed out that “it is still too early to judge whether the sanctions have been effective or not”, and considers that the shipment of arms to Ukraine from the EU countries will have more influence than sanctions in a possible end to the war in the short term.
For Domènech, the sanctions have shown that they are credible and he adds that “the credibility and unity that Europe has shown has come to surprise not only when it comes to to implement the sanctions but to comply with them“. But he has warned that these sanctions contribute to deglobalization, making the EU “have to deal with higher energy costs”something that can have negative long-term effects.
Cerruti has affirmed that the sanctions have not failed but considers that “it would be too presumptuous to say that they have been a success”, he has also assured that the sanctions by themselves will not solve the conflict. In his opinion, the sanctions of today shape the geopolitics of tomorrow, so they must be considered in perspective: “It is not a question of implementing the most effective sanction today, but of seeking the most efficient ones in terms of the geopolitics that we want tomorrow” .
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