Thursday’s US inflation report will raise the Fed’s rate hike by +25 or +50 basis points in February.


Here are previews of US inflation data:

The following, via National Australia Bank, highlights that the data will be taken as a reference for the upcoming decision of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC):

  • US CPI tonight was always the highlight of the week, and nothing this week has detracted from its importance, especially since several Fed officials have been open about the Feb. 1 FOMC decision between 25 basis points or 50 basis points. . What may matter in this debate is which side of expectations the CPI falls on. Consensus core CPI is expected to fall from 7.1% to 6.5% and the core index (excluding food and energy) will rise from 6.0% to 5.7%. Data at or below the line could see markets raise their current comfort level to 25 basis points instead of 50 basis points.

The latest Fed official to signal a favorable 25-basis-point rate hike is Boston Fed chief Collins:

The next FOMC meeting is January 31/February 1:


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