Tottenham always give up late chances. They can’t ride their luck forever

Anyone who has watched Tottenham Hotspur recently will not have been especially surprised by Everton’s stoppage-time equaliser on Saturday.

In three out of their last four wins, Ange Postecoglou’s side had come very close to doing the same thing.

Starting with the reverse fixture at home to Everton on December 23, when former Spurs loanee Arnaut Danjuma was literally millimetres from making it 2-2 in the 96th minute and earning the visitors a deserved point; a game when the question was asked: are Spurs becoming too reliant on the excellence of their goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario?

Then, against Burnley in the FA Cup a month ago, Zeki Amdouni put a volley just wide in the 98th minute with the score at 1-0. On Tuesday night, Vicario made an excellent save to tip Shandon Baptiste’s 93rd-minute volley over the bar and prevent Brentford making it 3-3.

Spurs’ luck ran out at Goodison Park yesterday, when Jarrad Branthwaite headed in from close range to level the scores at 2-2.

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Despite those recent escapes and before Branthwaite’s point-securing leveller, Tottenham have still made a habit of letting in late goals this season. Everton’s equaliser means they have now conceded eight goals in the 90th minute or later this season, their most in a single Premier League campaign (even allowing for longer stoppage times this season, we’re only just into February, so that’s pretty striking) and the most of any side in the division this term. There was also the 88th minute-winner scored by Manchester City in the FA Cup just over a week ago.

It’s worth pointing out that Tottenham have also scored late goals this season — grabbing four in the 90th minute and beyond, which have been worth six points to them, a higher tally actually than what the eight 90th-minute-and-after goals have cost them points-wise (five).

Apart from Saturday, the only other time that conceding in or past the 90th minute has cost Postecoglou’s side in a game this season was away at Wolverhampton Wanderers in November, when two stoppage-time goals turned what was a win as added time began into a 2-1 defeat.


Branthwaite scores a late equaliser to deny Spurs the win (Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)

The others, to be fair to Spurs, have been consolation goals — or in the case of the Chelsea game at home four days before that trip to Wolves, two added-time goals that turned a 2-1 defeat into a 4-1 loss (though the first of those was scored when Tottenham were pushing for an equaliser).

Maybe Spurs’ issue with late goals isn’t so serious, then. And yet, even if a few have been consolation efforts, the volume of them, coupled with the number of near-misses in recent weeks, does support the eye test, which says that Tottenham never feel especially comfortable seeing out a lead.

The data says the same thing, with only two teams dropping more points from winning positions this season than their 18.

Again, there is some nuance here, as Spurs have led in a staggering 20 of their 23 matches this season, so there has been quite a lot of scope for dropped points. They have also rescued 13 points from losing positions, the joint-third-highest in the league.

Points dropped from winning positions

But there’s no getting away from that feeling of vulnerability when they are in front.

This has been a season, after all, when Tottenham became the first Premier League team ever to lead in five straight games and not win any of them, and though that was largely when they were missing a lot of players, looking at the season as a whole, there have only been a handful of games where the final few minutes have felt comfortable.

It would be easy to put the nervousness towards the end of matches down to Postecoglou’s tactics and his general refusal to deviate from the same game plan.

Certainly, this is a factor in it, with both the Everton and Brentford fixtures a reminder that even with a lead going into the final minutes, the new Tottenham head coach is not going to instruct his defence to drop any deeper. That was what ultimately cost them late against Chelsea, the peak of Postecoglou resolutely refusing to compromise — irrespective of game state, opposition or personnel.

And this is possibly what makes the Australian most unusual.

There are plenty of managers who favour attacking football and will always start games with the same sort of approach, but most change it if the flow of the action that follows so dictates. Postecoglou is far more resistant to making systemic changes mid-match than pretty much all his rivals.

That said, what has been interesting about Tottenham’s last couple of games has been the fact that Postecoglou has tried to tweak things tactically.

Against both Everton and Brentford, Radu Dragusin has been sent on as a third centre-back, an attempt to make them less vulnerable against teams with a sizeable aerial threat. It certainly didn’t work yesterday, given the nature of Everton’s equaliser.

Richarlison, Tottenham


Richarlison rues Spurs’ draw at Everton (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Postecoglou wants his team to be the fittest in the league and so the concession of so many late goals will frustrate him immensely, as will any suggestion or evidence that his players start to focus too much on outcome rather than process as the stakes get higher towards the end of matches.

The Spurs boss should be helped with all this by having more players available and returning to full fitness over the next few weeks, giving him increased options off the bench. A paucity of alternatives has contributed at times this season to Spurs finishing games weaker than they’ve started them. Though that shouldn’t have necessarily been the case on Saturday.

On a micro level, you could say that had Spurs taken their second-half chances they would have got away with conceding late again. but you shouldn’t have to score three times to win every game, and the numbers suggest that it was Everton who, over the course of the game, had much the better opportunities, with an expected goals (xG) figure of 2.5 to Tottenham’s 0.9.

Spurs’ expected goals against (xGA) tally for the season now stands at 40.5, fifth-worst in the division, and if you keep giving up so many chances, it will eventually catch up with you, especially if they are in the closing minutes of a game when you have a narrow lead.

Tottenham are still in a great position in the league and exceeding expectations, but their targets have changed now — and they need to find a way to see matches out more effectively.

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(Top photo: Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images)

First appeared on theathletic.com

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